And he rode a pale pig.....

Swine flu in the news. In the space of three days my research has gone from a pigeon-hole which will allow me to see the south pacific and perhaps improve my job prospects to the sexiest thing in Public Health. Forgive my cynicism, please. If this goes very bad then I will regret my flippancy here but roughly a week in since I first heard the rumblings out of Mexico the fatality number hasn't climbed much. Right now I think we are looking at 1968-1969 rather than 1918-1921.

That's not to say folks won't die, or that this might not go nuclear. But on an average year the US sees approximately 50,000 flu fatalities. 1968-69's Hong Kong flu saw an additional 20,000 above the norm, roughly. So chances are this won't be the grand ding-dong of doom that bad medical fiction writers have been postulating for so long. Yet even a mild outbreak which scares folks away from public places is going to do wonders for the recession. Matter of fact, the timing would have been difficult to make worse. Little signs of economic recovery have begun to appear but if Des Moines loses 800 to the Swine then all bets are off.

On the other had, this could be very bad. H1N1, our current porcine friend, is related to the great Spanish Flu. Whom I shall call Pedro. Pedro infected 20% of the Earth's population in 1918-1921, killing 25 million in 25 weeks (a total which it took AIDS 25 YEARS to match) and in the end killed somewhere between 50 and 100 million humans, 2.5-5% of the total population at the time. With current population numbers and Pedro's fatality rates we would be looking at losses (based on a rough figure of 7 billion total) of between 175 million and 350 million. Given the extreme shift of population since 1918 from relatively spacious rural areas to closely packed urban centers a much higher death toll is more likely than not, if the organism is similarly potent. Pedro's cousin could prove to be a very tough fellow.

But when Pedro dropped by the deaths started immediately. Granted, the first visit, starting in March of 1918, was nowhere near as deadly as the second coming, starting in August of that year. Nonetheless the deaths started right away. While the fatalities in Mexico are disturbing, thus far only 20 are confirmed. The cases detected in the US and overseas have not shown any fatalities. Whatever this bug is, it isn't as quick as Pedro, nor apparently as deadly. Here's hoping it stays that way.

So it is fascinating to watch, and contains that little shiver of foreboding for what might truly occur. Not scared yet, but deeply interested. Part of my mind tells me to get home, but the rest knows that there is really no point. If it gets so bad that I would be needed, I would be just as needed here. I do worry about my family and friends. That is what keeps the black side of my personality, the bit that loves apocalypse fiction, infectious disease and the collapse of societies, from rooting for the big one out of sheer interest. There aren't too many societies out there anymore that don't contain someone whose passing I would mourn.

So instead I chat with Pedro like a trench coat freak writing Gacy. There is a great deal to be learned by understanding how he worked and what he did. In the case of a true epidemic knowing how to prevent rapid transmission will be much more important than a cure. I must admit that there is also that touch of vacuum that comes from walking with death. Gotta enjoy my work to be good at it, as per my high school guidance councillor. Plus there should be plenty of funding available the next few years for pandemic studies.....

Take care of yourselves, put a little extra food and water away, wash your hands frequently, avoid movies, plays, concerts, mobs, lynchings, orgies, PTA meetings, and other unnecessary public gatherings until we have a better handle on this thing. If you get sick, stay home. Eat well, take a multi-vitamin. Protect your mucous membranes by drinking lots of fluids, avoiding desiccants like caffeine and cigarettes, and don't pick your nose. Wash your hands again. Remember that people with the flu are infectious for a couple of days before they get sick and several days after symptoms abate. Use your common sense. If this is a pandemic you will probably get sick, the best we can hope for is that everyone won't get sick at once. If you stage it out correctly essential services stay functional and everybody does much better. Be nice to each other.

Actually, though this will probably burn out like SARS did and you won't need flu tips, that last paragraph is still the best general life advice I can offer. Especially about the PTA meetings.

Next post, back to New Zealand stuff, or the end of the world.